Former President Buhari’s 12 million votes gone with him

August 1, 2025 by Baba Yusuf

From my experience as a political apparatchik, as a strategist, and as a Nigerian who has witnessed and been part of different phases of the political evolution of Nigeria and other Countries, the truth is that the 12 million votes of the late former President Muhammadu Buhari (May His Soul Rest in Peace) died with him. There are no more Buhari’s block votes to share. All the politicians who were hanging around late President Buhari were actually leeching on his political capital to win elections at the state and federal levels, and Buhari knew that. That is why President Buhari was not loyal to any of them.

 To contextualise this reality, in northern Nigeria, where the chunk of Buhari’s “12million votes” came from in 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2015, there was a political phenomenon called “SAK”. SAK is a colloquial Hausa word that means “uniformity”. The SAK concept started in the north, especially in Kano State. So, if Buhari was in a political party, politicians leaned on Buhari’s so-called “integrity” political capital to join him as “underdogs” to win the elections. For instance, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau became governor of Kano State in 2003 riding on the SAK phenomenon, when General Muhammadu Buhari entered into Nigeria’s politics as a Presidential candidate on the platform of the then All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), state and national assembly members also emerged. Subsequently, politicians like Senator Umar Tanko Al-Makura became governor of Nasarawa State under the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in 2011, Mallam Nasiru El-Rufai became the Governor of Kaduna in 2015 under the All Progressives Congress (APC), including Senators and members of the House of federal and state representatives. Prior to their emergence, most of those politicians did not have valuable/significant political capital. And most of them never made serious efforts to build political structures, and now former President Muhammadu Buhari is dead with his votes!

 Former President Buhari knew that those politicians were all leaning on him to achieve political relevance and prominence. That is why Buhari stated the mantra, “I am for everybody, I am for nobody”, during his inauguration as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2015. Therefore, all those people that we are posturing about claiming political relevance will now have to earn their political relevance, going forward.

 Some Strategic Considerations

Buhari’s demise has technically reset the voting pattern, which will only manifest during the 2027 elections. It is instructive to note that the Buhari factor was crucial to the APC winning the Presidential and Gubernatorial elections in 2015. In 2023, the Buhari factor, although highly eroded by 2023, still played a significant role in the APC’s victory. But his demise has now opened a new vista for the APC. The hatred of the APC by some citizens is not only due to the perception of poor governance, but also of the perception of a lack of “enough” dividend of democracy given that the core north (North West and North East) who gave President Tinubu and he APC enough numbers to win the Presidency and State governments in the region.

 However, the key performance deliverables of Governors at the States in the northern states are seen by most citizens as the job of Mr. President. Therefore, the non-performance of Governors (where applicable), if not properly communicated, will continue to rub negatively on the image of President Tinubu’s administration, as we approach the 2027 elections. Consequently, the handlers and political leaders holding key positions in the administration of President Bola Tinubu have the responsibility not just to deliver their mandates, but also to communicate clearly and effectively to their fellow citizens at the federal, state levels as well as at their constituencies. Moreover, the sense of entitlement and disdain with which some of the APC leaders behave at the local levels could backfire on the APC. Indeed, Mr. President is doing the best he can at his level, but a “tree does not make a forest”. The APC team should not allow complacency to creep into their psyche or seep into their ranks, because the opposition parties are in disarray. My caution is that it is early days yet to rest on your laurels and allow Mr. President to do all the work! To whom much is given, much is expected!

 Complacency and Simmering Internal Party Concerns

In my view, the current biggest challenge for APC now is not the opposition political parties;  the biggest challenge that APC will have is the APC itself. That is the issue of managing success, and that is “complacency.” APC is simmering underneath because there is disenchantment and frustration among some of its members.

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 Therefore, If the power of incumbency intoxicates the APC to the extent that they don’t take care of their own within the party structure, whether it is the CPC block, the ACN block, the ANPP block and others that feel that they have been abandoned, as we have seen them moving away or they grumble to us behind the scenes, they will play the game of opposition politics or sabotage under the radar; and the North are masters of playing that game. And that is what we call in places like Kano and other parts of the north in Hausa, “Wake da Shinkafa” (Rice and Beans) method, whereby we will vote for a Governor to emerge in a political party, but we are against the President during the Presidential election or vice-versa. Nothing should be left to chance.

Situational Awareness and Delivery of Good Governance

Essentially, situational awareness and the delivery of good governance in reality are critical success factors for the APC, i.e., dealing with insecurity, cost of governance, and dealing with the mandate as it were, beyond the political narratives. Because, like I said, the Buhari factor is gone, and most of the self-acclaimed or so-called political godsons of late Muhammadu Buhari, be them the ones that are with President Bola Tinubu today, or those that are currently gallivanting across political parties, do not have the political capital they are claiming to have. While some are selling dummies to President Tinubu so that they remain relevant, others who are malingering in other political parties are also selling dummies and living in a virtual reality, except for a few authentic political leaders. I am sure that President Bola Tinubu is aware of these dynamics, albeit not to the full extent, down to the grassroots in the north. I reckon that is why President Tinubu is making some political moves to reposition the APC. One of such moves is the removal of Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje as the National Chairman of the APC and zoning the national chairmanship to North Central. This is a good development for the APC, because in my opinion, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje has since outlived his relevance as the national chairman of the APC.

 Hence, basically, the death of former President Muhammad Buhari has reset or will reset the voting pattern in the North in 2027.  It takes time and a lot of work, credibility, and other political assets to muster 12 million votes in 2027, given the level of voter apathy we have witnessed in 2015 in 2019, and 2023. However, I reckon that there would be more voters who would turn out in 2027 because Nigerians will see the reason why they really need to come out to vote and decide who leads them at the national and state levels.

 Focus on State Governors

What I will say here is that the focus on the state level should be key for citizens to ensure the delivery of good governance in Nigeria going forward. 60% of our lack of performance or the progress of Nigeria can be directly aligned to the non-performance of our state governors.

 Professor Nentawe Yilwatda as the new APC National Chairman

The emergence of Professor Nentawe Yilwatda as the National Chairman of the APC was the right strategic move by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The agitation of the North Central geopolitical zone with regard to the position of the National Chairmanship of the APC has been finally addressed by Mr. President. I commend Mr. President for this selection that brought about a “dark horse” at a time when there are a lot of contending powerful and relevant forces that Mr. President cannot ignore, e.g. Senator Umar Tanko Al-Makura, Senator Sani Musa, and others that are highly qualified aspirants, but whose selection could rock the already rocking boat of the Middle Belt APC. Thus, the emergence of Professor Yilwatda, not just as a “dark horse”, but also a Christian, is a deft move, and also partly addresses the Muslim-Muslim Presidential ticket issue that has remained a burning political issue. 

 Furthermore, selecting a national chairman from Plateau State, where the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is reigning at the gubernatorial level, is another suave move to ensure that either before or during the 2027 election, Plateau State becomes an APC state. What remains to be seen is how Yulwata is going to apply strategy, political dexterity, and emotional intelligence to uniting the party and addressing the foundational issues of the power blocks that formed the APC in 2015, which I believe should not be treated with levity.