GDP rebasing significant economic milestone, says Yusuf

August 4, 2025 by Muyiwa Lucas

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), yesterday hailed the sectoral contributions in the first quarter (Q1) 2025 as recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, now anchored to a new base year of 2019.

The Group noted that the re-basing exercise represents a significant milestone in Nigeria’s economic management, as it enhances the relevance, accuracy, and timeliness of national economic data and aligns Nigeria’s statistical reporting with international best practices.

A review of sectoral performance in Q1 2025 shows that 37 sectors recorded growth, nine sectors contracted, and three sectors in recession. Top-performing sectors included financial services, 15.3 per cent; oil refining, 11.51 per cent; transportation, 14.08 per cent; ICT, 7.4 per cent and metal ores, 25 per cent.

On the downside, the CPPE noted contraction in the following sectors: livestock -16.7 per cent; fishing, -0.21 per cent; textiles, -1.63 per cent; coal mining,-22.3 per cent; quarry & minerals, -21.55 per cent; plastics and rubber, -3.2 per cent; iron & steel, -0.35 per cent; air transport, -0.81 per cent. Sectors in recession include air transport, textiles, and coal mining.

A further analysis of the sectors showed that in Q1 2025, major contributors to GDP included trade, crop production, real estate, ICT, construction, petroleum and gas, food and beverage, financial institutions, and manufacturing.

The oil sector contributed 3.97 per cent to GDP, while the non-oil sector accounted for 96.03 per cent, indicating the sustained dominance of the non-oil sector in the Nigerian economy. But productivity remains a major challenge for the sector.

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The share of agriculture improved from 22.12 per cent to 25.8 per cent, and the service sector’s contribution increased to 53.09 per cent from 50.22 per cent pre-rebasing. Real estate sector ranking rose to third among GDP contributors, following crop production 17.58 per cent and trade 17.42 per cent, with real estate at 10.78 per cent, ICT at 6.18 per cent and crude oil at 5.85 per cent.

According to the CPPE, despite the non-oil sector’s dominant contribution to GDP, its share of government revenue remains disproportionately low. This indicates persistent productivity and revenue mobilisation challenges in the non-oil economy, which must be addressed to ensure fiscal sustainability and inclusive growth.

The Chief Executive, CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, the GDP re-basing is a critical statistical exercise that updates the base year used for calculating national output, ensuring that the structure of the economy is accurately reflected in line with current realities.

“By adopting 2019 as the new base year, Nigeria’s GDP figures now incorporate recent changes in consumption patterns, production technologies, and sectoral dynamics. This provides a more realistic and comprehensive picture of the economy, which is essential for effective policy formulation, planning, and investment decisions.

Yusuf said special attention is needed for sectors in recession, that is, those that contracted and those experiencing slow growth. “Addressing structural challenges, improving access to finance, tackling insecurity and fostering innovation will be critical to stimulating recovery and growth,” he canvassed.

The CPPE boss further recommended that high-performing sectors should continue to receive support to sustain and further improve their output, leveraging their potential as engines of growth, revenue generation and job creation.

Besides, he noted that there is a pressing need to address the disconnect between the non-oil sector’s significant GDP contribution and its relatively lower contribution to government revenue. Strengthening tax administration, broadening the tax base, optimising non-tax revenues and promoting formalisation of economic activities in the informal sector are essential steps, while more frequent and timely GDP re-basing exercises should be enshrined to ensure that economic data remains current and relevant for policy and investment decisions, including continuous engagement with stakeholders—including government agencies, private sector participants, researchers, and development partners, for effective policy formulation and implementation.