Dangote Refinery Set to Boost Nigeria’s GDP to $322bn by 2025

A recent report by Data Services & Resources Ltd has revealed that the Dangote Oil Refinery will massively enhance Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025.

According to the report titled ‘Impact of Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Economy,’ the refinery is expected to increase Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to $322bn by 2025.

It added that without the refinery, Nigeria’s GDP growth would reach 3.34 per cent in 2024 and 4.13 per cent by 2030.

However, with the refinery operational, GDP growth is projected to rise to 4.15 per cent in 2024 and 6.21 per cent by 2030.

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By 2026, Nigeria’s GDP at current market prices is forecast to hit N432.24tn, climbing to N806.91tn by 2030.

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Afolabi Olowookere, Managing Director at Data Services & Resources Ltd, predicts the refinery will boost GDP to $370.49bn in 2026, $374.69bn in 2027, and continue rising to $412.91bn in 2028 and $446.98bn in 2029.

The Dangote Refinery, which commenced initial production in January 2024, is expected to have a profound impact on the economy.

Its processing capacity will reach 650,000 barrels per day by Q1 2025, producing 10.4 million tonnes of gasoline, 4.6Mt of diesel, and 4Mt of aviation fuel annually.

The refinery will contribute greatly to fiscal sustainability, creating thousands of direct and indirect jobs, reducing reliance on imported petroleum products, and improving Nigeria’s trade balance through increased exports of refined products.

Moreover, the refinery will strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position by reducing fuel subsidies and generating substantial tax revenues, providing vital resources for infrastructure and social development projects.